ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥

Global model maps future ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥n wine exports

Tuesday, 20 August 2013

New research by the ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥ of Adelaide and Monash ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥ reveals how much the high-value ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥n dollar (AUD) harmed the ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥n wine industry in recent years, and how exports could grow if the recent AUD devaluation is sustained.

In a project funded by the Grape and Wine Research and Development Corporation (GWRDC), ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥ of Adelaide and Monash ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥'s Dr Glyn Wittwer mapped data using a newly revised and updated model of the world's wine markets.

"Producers are well aware of the debilitating effect of the high AUD relative to the US$, UK Pound and Euro. However, our results suggest exchange rate changes during 2007-11 reduced super-premium wine prices in ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥ by one-fifth, which was more than in any other Southern Hemisphere wine-exporting country," says Professor Anderson.

"We can also use the model to project wine exports over the next five years. Those prospects depend very much on both subsequent exchange rate movements and China's wine import growth."

Professor Anderson says that with the recent drop in the AUD, the ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥n wine industry will be much better positioned to compete internationally, especially in China as its demand for wine imports increases.

"Wine consumption is forecast to increase faster than production in China over the next five years," Professor Anderson says.

"If ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥ invests as much as other wine exporters in that market, and the AUD doesn't rise again, our results suggest China's share of ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥'s wine export earnings could rise from 13% in 2012 to 20-28% by 2018," Professor Anderson says.

Dr Stuart Thomson, GWRDC Executive Director, says this research has offered an important insight into the ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥n wine industry.

"This data about international wine demand and global exchange rates will help ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥n wine businesses better understand future opportunities, which helps to support a competitive ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥n wine sector," Dr Thomson says.

Professor Anderson presented preliminary results at the opening session of the ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥n Wine Industry Technical Conference in Sydney last month, and a revised paper titled, A global macroeconomic perspective on the ÐÓ°ÉÖ±²¥n wine industry, will be uploaded later this week at

Contact details